March 29, 2009: Look at the Outfield

Yesterday, we took a look at the starting infield for Opening Day and the 2009 season. (At least the first part of the season.) Today, we are going to look at the outfield. The Astros have always been known for their starting pitching and their strong outfield. While the starting pitching has taken a left turn recently, the outfield has continued to be solid for the most part, but is that going to be the case this year?

Starters

LF – Carlos Lee
CF – Michael Bourn
RF – Hunter Pence
OF – Darin Erstad

Carlos Lee, Leftfield

Spring Training Stats

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
16	42	4	7	1	0	0	6	8	8	7	0	0	.288	.190	.167

I’m going to pause for a moment so you can take a look at those statistics again.

Okay, deep breaths. Get a brown bag if you are hyperventilating.

Yes, that is a .167 average that you are seeing with .190 slugging. Maybe he was just tired from the World Baseball Classic, so let’s take a look at those numbers.

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.250	.143	.143

Yuck! Those are even worse! Basically, Carlos is having an awful spring and I am highly concerned. Yes, he is a veteran and yes, it is Spring Training, but to be fair to the slaughter I gave Kaz Matsui yesterday, I can’t ignore the numbers. Carlos is a slugger. A big guy who can belt a line drive into the Crawford Boxes. He had a great season last year, but these numbers don’t show it.

Of course, he does have one excuse that Matsui does not. The last time he played in a game that meant anything before the WBC was August 8, 2008 when he broke his finger. I’m not sure how much slack we should give him because of that injury. It surely doesn’t make up for a .167 average. I am a little surprised that the Astros didn’t play him more so he could get his groove back.

Will he have a good season? I have no idea. I would like to think that he will bounce back from this and that the numbers don’t mean anything, but egads… .167?!?

Michael Bourn, Centerfield

Spring Training Stats

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
25	73	10	16	3	1	0	9	21	10	13	9	2	.310	.288	.219

When the Astros traded Willy Taveras for Jason Jennings in late-2006, I was pretty annoyed. Not only did I really like Willy, I felt that he was the perfect fit for centerfield and that his infield hitting was irreplaceable. I still think I am right and I hope that one day, we will get Taveras back into an Astros uniform. Ed Wade takes over and he at least tries to replace Taveras with Michael Bourn who is a speedster and plays pretty good defense in the outfield. HOWEVER, his offensive skills are sorely lacking.

I’m not talking about just his batting average. I am talking about that x-factor that made Willy a terror at the plate. When Willy was up to bat, the pitchers had to literally change the way they approached him. There are few batters in the league that do that to a pitcher. Barry Bonds is probably one of the best there has ever been at causing a pitcher (and catcher) to panic and have to completely change the way they focused on the batter. With Willy’s speed, he was able to hit a dinky little bloop behind the pitcher and get a hit out of it. Not once, not twice, but time after time. This made pitchers nervous.

Michael Bourn can’t do that and I miss it greatly. His stolen base numbers in Spring Training are good, but the rest of the stats are fairly unremarkable with two exception… 9 RBIs and 10 walks. Keep in mind, 13 strikeouts is a HUGE concern.

Will he have a good season? It’s really, really hard to tell at this point. Some of his numbers seem to show a glimmer of hope on the horizon. However, I just don’t have faith in him yet. We’ll see where he is at after a month. If he could figure out how to bunt, he might stay in the majors all year and be a returner for next year. One thing is for sure… if he doesn’t figure out how to bunt and get on base, he is of no use to us.

Hunter Pence, Rightfield

Spring Training Stats

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
21	61	7	19	2	1	2	3	29	6	12	2	0	.373	.475	.311

Hunter is having a good spring. I am a little concerned about his 12 strikeouts, but I am bolstered by the rest of his numbers.

Will he have a good season? My money is on yes. He survived the Sophomore curse and is now into his Junior year. Many experts agree with me and expect him to have a great season.

Darin Erstad, Outfield (Centerfield)

Spring Training Stats

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
18	49	4	12	1	0	0	5	13	3	9	0	1	.283	.265	.245

Let’s be honest… Darin Erstad is really our backup centerfielder and I suspect that he will be starter at least once during the year. He is a solid player, fielder and teammate. I was actually surprised that he resigned with the Astros. I figured that he would go elsewhere to be a starter, but he either loves the organization or figures he has a good shot at being a starter here. Or both. He is also very good off the bench and we always need that guy who you can depend upon to pinch hit. When you look at his spring numbers, they aren’t great, but they are marginally better than Bourn’s except for the RBIs and walks.

Will he have a good season? I don’t know. I really don’t. It’s always so hard to judge bench players. (Though I am listening to the Toronto game as I write and Erstad just hit a double.) My gut tells me that he will have a solid season and be someone we can feel comfortable as a backup outfielder.

Final Thoughts

Ugh… things don’t look so great do they? Let’s hope that Spring Training isn’t a prediction of how the outfield is going to perform this season.